Final odds on Obama's electoral margins

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Nov. 5. This is the last time I will post these numbers, and they're basically only interesting insofar as they give some insight into the potential magnitude of Obama's win. Thanks to everyone who's read over the past weeks!

Matt

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 285+       0.9998    |    285+       0.0000
 290+       0.9996    |    290+       0.0000
 295+       0.9992    |    295+       0.0000
 300+       0.9986    |    300+       0.0000
 305+       0.9980    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9950    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9929    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9911    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9881    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9846    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.9764    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.9649    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.9448    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.9095    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.8417    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.7820    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.4779    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.2972    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1981    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0606    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0248    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0121    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0077    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0044    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0025    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0010    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0004    |    415+       0.0000

Live odds: 11:34

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 11:34 pm. McCain has conceded, and at this point it's quite clear that the only question is how significant a margin it'll be.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 280+       0.9998    |    280+       0.0000
 285+       0.9996    |    285+       0.0000
 290+       0.9994    |    290+       0.0000
 295+       0.9988    |    295+       0.0000
 300+       0.9980    |    300+       0.0000
 305+       0.9972    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9949    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9929    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9904    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9859    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9798    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.9699    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.9522    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.9244    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.8675    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.7954    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.7198    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.5170    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.3886    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.2975    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1313    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0809    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0577    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0415    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0280    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0190    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0093    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0041    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0016    |    420+       0.0000
 425+       0.0005    |    425+       0.0000

Live odds: 11 pm

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 11 pm. CNN has called VA and the election for Obama, and that seems not unreasonable at this point. It remains to be seen how many electoral votes he'll get.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 260+       0.9998    |    260+       0.0020
 265+       0.9996    |    265+       0.0012
 266+       0.9995    |    266+       0.0010
 267+       0.9995    |    267+       0.0009
 268+       0.9994    |    268+       0.0008
 269+       0.9993    |    269+       0.0008
 270+       0.9992    |    270+       0.0007
 271+       0.9992    |    271+       0.0006
 272+       0.9991    |    272+       0.0005
 273+       0.9990    |    273+       0.0005
 274+       0.9988    |    274+       0.0004
 275+       0.9987    |    275+       0.0004
 280+       0.9979    |    280+       0.0002
 285+       0.9964    |    285+       0.0001
 290+       0.9946    |    290+       0.0001
 295+       0.9902    |    295+       0.0000
 300+       0.9865    |    300+       0.0000
 305+       0.9822    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9724    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9663    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9585    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9458    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9317    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.9127    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.8790    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.8407    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.7451    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.6679    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.5856    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.3939    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.3095    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.2351    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1154    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0741    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0491    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0309    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0208    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0146    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0067    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0035    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0014    |    420+       0.0000
 425+       0.0005    |    425+       0.0000

Live odds: 10:24

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 10:24 pm. Very likely Obama will make it over 350 electoral votes, still about a 1 in 4 chance of getting 375+.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 260+       0.9998    |    260+       0.0020
 265+       0.9996    |    265+       0.0012
 266+       0.9995    |    266+       0.0011
 267+       0.9994    |    267+       0.0010
 268+       0.9993    |    268+       0.0009
 269+       0.9993    |    269+       0.0008
 270+       0.9992    |    270+       0.0007
 271+       0.9991    |    271+       0.0007
 272+       0.9990    |    272+       0.0006
 273+       0.9989    |    273+       0.0005
 274+       0.9988    |    274+       0.0004
 275+       0.9986    |    275+       0.0004
 280+       0.9978    |    280+       0.0002
 285+       0.9962    |    285+       0.0001
 290+       0.9942    |    290+       0.0001
 295+       0.9907    |    295+       0.0000
 300+       0.9863    |    300+       0.0000
 305+       0.9817    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9729    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9659    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9577    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9455    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9308    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.9112    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.8762    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.8329    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.7582    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.6668    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.5802    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.4157    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.3158    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.2325    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1207    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0783    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0502    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0340    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0226    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0151    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0078    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0039    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0016    |    420+       0.0000
 425+       0.0006    |    425+       0.0000
 430+       0.0002    |    430+       0.0000

Live odds: 9:49

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 9:49 pm.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9997    |    255+       0.0047
 260+       0.9995    |    260+       0.0031
 265+       0.9992    |    265+       0.0019
 266+       0.9991    |    266+       0.0018
 267+       0.9991    |    267+       0.0016
 268+       0.9989    |    268+       0.0014
 269+       0.9988    |    269+       0.0013
 270+       0.9987    |    270+       0.0012
 271+       0.9986    |    271+       0.0011
 272+       0.9984    |    272+       0.0009
 273+       0.9982    |    273+       0.0009
 274+       0.9981    |    274+       0.0008
 275+       0.9979    |    275+       0.0007
 280+       0.9967    |    280+       0.0004
 285+       0.9950    |    285+       0.0002
 290+       0.9925    |    290+       0.0001
 295+       0.9892    |    295+       0.0001
 300+       0.9845    |    300+       0.0000
 305+       0.9789    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9700    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9612    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9500    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9342    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9137    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.8884    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.8509    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.8004    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.7370    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.6472    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.5547    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.4156    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.3150    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.2214    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1227    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0734    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0477    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0334    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0229    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0150    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0082    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0042    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0015    |    420+       0.0000
 425+       0.0006    |    425+       0.0000

Live odds: 9:16

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 9:16

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9997    |    255+       0.0051
 260+       0.9994    |    260+       0.0034
 265+       0.9991    |    265+       0.0022
 266+       0.9990    |    266+       0.0020
 267+       0.9989    |    267+       0.0018
 268+       0.9987    |    268+       0.0017
 269+       0.9986    |    269+       0.0015
 270+       0.9985    |    270+       0.0014
 271+       0.9983    |    271+       0.0013
 272+       0.9982    |    272+       0.0011
 273+       0.9980    |    273+       0.0010
 274+       0.9978    |    274+       0.0009
 275+       0.9976    |    275+       0.0008
 280+       0.9964    |    280+       0.0005
 285+       0.9945    |    285+       0.0003
 290+       0.9920    |    290+       0.0002
 295+       0.9886    |    295+       0.0001
 300+       0.9839    |    300+       0.0001
 305+       0.9782    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9697    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9604    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9483    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9317    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9107    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.8834    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.8457    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.7949    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.7326    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.6501    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.5639    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.4456    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.3494    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.2599    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1679    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.1098    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0761    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0544    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0382    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0263    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0155    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0087    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0038    |    420+       0.0000
 425+       0.0015    |    425+       0.0000
 430+       0.0005    |    430+       0.0000

Live odds: 8:39

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 8:39 pm. Still looks terrible for McCain. At this point, the question is probably how much of an Obama landslide are we looking at. Fortunately, I have some numbers about that too. Like a 26.67% chance of 375+ electoral votes, for example.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9997    |    255+       0.0049
 260+       0.9994    |    260+       0.0033
 265+       0.9991    |    265+       0.0022
 266+       0.9990    |    266+       0.0020
 267+       0.9989    |    267+       0.0018
 268+       0.9988    |    268+       0.0016
 269+       0.9986    |    269+       0.0015
 270+       0.9985    |    270+       0.0014
 271+       0.9984    |    271+       0.0012
 272+       0.9982    |    272+       0.0011
 273+       0.9980    |    273+       0.0010
 274+       0.9978    |    274+       0.0009
 275+       0.9977    |    275+       0.0008
 280+       0.9964    |    280+       0.0005
 285+       0.9946    |    285+       0.0003
 290+       0.9922    |    290+       0.0002
 295+       0.9888    |    295+       0.0001
 300+       0.9842    |    300+       0.0001
 305+       0.9786    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9705    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9610    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9489    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9323    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9114    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.8847    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.8478    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.7993    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.7379    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.6593    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.5739    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.4636    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.3607    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.2667    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1669    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.1007    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0632    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0408    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0279    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0190    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0119    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0069    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0032    |    420+       0.0000
 425+       0.0013    |    425+       0.0000
 430+       0.0005    |    430+       0.0000